Ask any US political consultant advising an Irish political party what the most surprising thing about Irish politics and they will all say the same thing. What really surprises the US hired guns is the fact that the economy does not feature as an issue. Why is that and what does it mean for the next election.
There is no group in society, who believe as strongly as politicians do, that demographics are destiny. Long before David McWilliams discovered the “Pope’s Children” Irish political parties ( and their market researchers) had discovered Ratoath Women. Early 30’s with one or two young children, husband works in IT while she is a teacher, living in the commuter belt. Economically liberal but socially conservative, frustrated by poor planning and substandard public services she is the voter who will decide the next election. Ratoath women is part of a huge demographic bulge of children who were born around the time of the Pope’s visit, and who are now buying houses and beginning families. If you want to see them in their natural habitat, go to B&Q on a Saturday morning where you will find the father, pushing a buggy or trying to control some tearaway toddler. They are probably buying something for the Garden or shelving for the kid’s room.
Simply because of the sheer numbers in this demographic bulge they have the power to decide the next election. Childcare, primary education, commuting, the environment everything that concerns her concerns Ireland’s politicians. The first political party to target them was Fine Gael, in the European elections and that happened almost by accident. In Mairead McGuinness they had a candidate who might have been genetically designed to get Ratoath women’s vote. In the initial stages of the campaign Fine Gael believed that Mairead’s appeal lay in the fact she was an agricultural correspondent. They hoped she would win the farming vote. However a few days on the campaign trail enough to convince them that Leinster was no longer a rural constituency and Mairead’s real appeal was to the denizens of the commuter belt. Articulate, attractive, a professional with a young family, and tough, Fine Gael had found a dream candidate for the commuter belt. Every other party watched and learnt the lessons of the campaign.
In the last year Ratoath women has become interested in the environment and concerned about global warming and so has every political party. However she has not been concerned about the economy. Why? Remember this is a person who has never experienced an economic downturn. She grew up during the longest boom in Irish history. To Ratoath and her peer group, economic growth and full employment is the norm. The tech downturn which devastated the electronics and high tech sector in the US and mainland Europe was barely felt here, reinforcing their feeling that downturns were for other people.
Focusing on public services rather than on the economy also suited the opposition. Who wants to debate a Government that has presided over the most successful economy in Europe on the economy? No one.
The focus of the opposition attacks has been on Health and Justice rather than the economy. The subtext of their attacks has been change versus more of the same.
That may all be about to change. During the last election Fine Gael’s focus group research told them that quality of life issues were of most concern to people and they fought a campaign based around these issues. Focus Group research can date very quickly however and in the weeks leading up to election campaign the public became concerned more about the threat to their jobs of the global tech downturn. Fianna Fail spotted the trend quickly and began to fight the election on the need for political stability in tough times. In the days leading up to the election FF knew they had it won and were praying no one would notice how close they were to an overall majority. We may well be facing a reprise of this scenario.
The recent spate of manufacturing job losses is beginning to worry Ratoath women, and may well bring the economy back as the big issue, the hot button that decides how people vote. Paradoxically this may in fact suit the Government. The economy is the chosen battleground for the Government; it has not only a strong record but can wave the threat of potential rainbow’s policy incoherence. Economic jitters will give the Government the opportunity to push the line, there may be trouble ahead now is no time to experiment. In such a scenario the opposition will attempt to blame the Government for allowing rising costs, particularly public sector costs to erode national competitiveness.
An election fought on the economy is good for business. It will allow the business community to push business concerns to the top of the political agenda and will give an incoming Government (of whatever complexion) a mandate to take some of the tough decisions needed to tackle rising costs.
Seamus Mulconry, Director of Public Affairs
This article also appeared in Business and Finance.
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