Edelman PR

Talk to any politician in Dail Eireann and you will hear the same refrain “I wish to God it was over and we had a result”. Speculation as to the make-up of the next Government has been in the media for over two years, and whatever about the general public, most politicians are heartily sick of it. It has been the longest campaign in Irish Electoral history. Finally however the phoney war is about to end, manifesto’s are being signed off, the look and feel of campaigns are being presented to party leaders, and messages are receiving their final stress test. In the immortal words of PJ Mara “It’s Showtime”.

As we enter the real campaign there are as yet few certainties. What does seem certain is that the Green Party will benefit from a surge in interest and concern amongst voters (particularly amongst female voters) on issues such as climate change, and the environment. As every Director of Elections knows the fair wind of a surge can save candidates under threat, or push over the line some long shot hopefuls.
There is no doubt that the Green Party are now a serious political party and could, and probably will be strong threat to the established parties in a significant number of constituencies. The Green Party website is no longer a ready source of material for opposition research specialists, while the party is fielding young articulate and attractive candidates.

Already the big guns of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats have begun to train the attacks on the Greens. Fianna Fail’s strategy has been simple, become greener than the greens, adopt the green agenda and deny voters a reason to switch to the greens. The Progressive Democrats have also adopted this strategy and in addition have raised the issue of the threat to business of the Green’s taxation policy.
Some commentators have suggested that the rise of the Greens may derail the Sinn Fein bandwagon as the Greens receive a protest vote, and a youth vote. I’m not so sure, for a start the Sinn Fein bandwagon has shown signs of running out of steam for some time. Sinn Fein no longer occupies the same amount of public mind space as they did two years ago. The may have received a bounce from their successes in the North but given the general lack of interest in Northern matters amongst the southern electorate that bounce may not be too big. Secondly Sinn Fein’s great strength is it’s ability to mobilise support amongst working class males who traditionally do not vote. There is very little crossover between Green and Sinn Fein supporters.

The youth vote is one of the great myths of Irish politics, every party claims it wants to attract it but in practice most strongly discount its existence. The problem is that the majority of young people don’t vote. Voting is something that people begin to engage with as they get their first real pay check, get a foot on, or these days try to get a foot on the property ladder or begin a family. That’s when most people begin to realise that what the jokers in Leinster House do has a real impact on their lives and begin to vote accordingly.

Paradoxically the Greens may pose the greatest threat to the Progressive Democrats and to Labour. It is no accident that both the Greens and the Progressive Democrats have representation in almost all of the same constituencies, primarily metropolitan five seaters. The supporters of both parties tend to have above average incomes, to have above average educational qualifications and to be more focused on national rather than local political issues. As one political wit put “They are members of the self actualisation class of Irish Politics” As noted above the Progressive Democrats have already begun to square up to the Greens. The challenge for Labour is much more subtle.

As well has its traditional working class base in Urban and Rural Ireland the Labour Party draws a sizable section of its support from urban professionals such as lawyers, University lecturers etc who tend to socially liberal and for whom the green message is very attractive. As Labour and Fine Gael may well need Green support to form administration direct attacks on the Green party are to say the least inadvisable.
In recent times Labour has been sandwiched between the rise of Sinn Fein, which has hovered up the working class protest vote and the rise of the Greens which has had the same impact on the middle-class protest and fashionable Green vote. Nevertheless they have played their cards well; Pat Rabbitte’s conversion to tax cuts surprised the Government and the Pol Corrs and effectively put the Government on the back foot. The Labour Add campaign “Are you happy” does latch onto sometime which is the Zeitgeist, namely that many young people with families are increasingly frazzled as they try to balance work and family commitments. Were it not for the emergence of the other two parties Labour might well be looking at a very good election, as it is they are certainly looking at the prospect of power. 
 
The lessons for business are clear, whether or not the Greens are in power after the next election the Green agenda is now centre stage with both consumers and voters. Themes such as energy conservation, sustainable development and community are now important to how voters cast their ballots and consumers spend their cash.

Seamus Mulconry, Director of Public Affairs

This article also appeared in Business and Finance.

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