If Machiavelli were alive today, I have no doubt that he cite the Prince of Drumcondra and Duke of Ballybough, Bertie Ahern as the role model for a successful political leader. The formation of the new government is quite simply a work of art. Bertie Ahern has created a situation where neither the Greens, nor the Progressive Democrats nor indeed the independents can bring down the Government on their own. When the Progressive Democrats had four T.D.×?Ts and the ability to bring down the government they had real power. In the last administration they had eight T.Ds but lacking the ability to bring down the Government on their own had far less power.
In addition by co-opting most of the independents Bertie had destroyed the technical group and thus the ability of Sinn Fein to ask Leaders questions. Having already put a stop to Sinn Fein×?Ts electoral gallop ( the first time in 15 years that Sinn Fein has suffered an electoral set back) it must have been a source of some satisfaction to Bertie Ahern see the expression on the Sinn Fein T.Ds faces as they realised that they were now to be denied the significant platform of Leaders questions.
In putting Mary Harney back in Health Bertie Ahern once more demonstrated his political acumen. Had he replaced Harney with a Fianna Fail Minister he would have sent a signal to the vested interests in Health that they had won. Having won one political scalp they would doubtless have sought another, and done all in their power to frustrate the radical reform necessary in the Health Service. Contrary to the popular and media view Mary Harney has delivered significant reforms to the system. Services in accident and emergency are slowly but surely improving. Now she is in a far more powerful position than she was when she first took the position of Minister for Health. There were many in the Health Service who believed that all they had to do was wait for the election and the reforms and Mary Harney would disappear. Well neither have. The positive noises emanating from the Consultants are a rueful recognition of this reality.
In bringing the Greens into Government has once more demonstrated his shrewd understanding of the people×?Ts will. It is true that the environment did not feature as an issue in the election. However that had less to do with the level of people×?Ts interest in the environment and more to do with the fact that the relentless focus Ahern×?Ts finances by the media squeezed all of the real issues bar the economy out of the debate. The truth is that environment is now a real issue for people and they do want to see government action to curb carbon emissions. Whatever the makeup of the new government, its agenda was bound to be green. The programme for Government contains nothing that should keep a Fianna Fail Co Councillor or Jackie Healy-Rae awake at night. However by giving the Greens Energy and Environment he has given them the means the make a real difference. If they are successful Fianna Fail will claim the credit and bask in the glory. If they fail, well it just shows you that for the tough jobs you need Fianna Fail. For make no mistake it will be a tough job. Writing the policies for a greener Ireland is the easy part, implementing these policies is the tough part. We have set ourselves very aggressive targets for the reduction of carbon emissions and for the adoption of renewable energy. Reaching these targets will require a lot of tough decisions. Everybody wants wind power but few people want a wind turbine in the field beside them. The new Green Ministers face massive challenges in implementing their agenda. However if they can skilfully use the synergies between the Departments of Energy and Environment they have the potential to do so. Trevor Sargeant×?Ts move into Food is also a good move from the Green point of view. The archetypical green voter (32 year old female with two kids) is deeply concerned both about the environment and about the food her children eats.
Where does this leave the opposition? When Fine Gael stop celebrating their recent success and look at the result in the cold light of day, they will realise they face a formidable challenge in the next election. They ran an excellent campaign and Enda Kenny fulfilled his pledge to electrify the party. However they did not make significant gains in the crucial commuter belt constituencies. Nor did their frontbench cause any real problems for the big guns of Fianna Fail. In short the Fine Gael Front bench did not give the sense it had the heft to form the core of an alternative Government. Labour face an even more difficult prospect, they probably ran the best campaign they had in years but failed to bring in new blood to the party. Labour has some of the best T.Ds in the Dail but it is an aging party and urgently needs renewal. For Labour the local elections are a make or break decision point.
For now Bertie Ahern is the master of all he surveys but as his predecessor rightly noted it is not the big hurdles that trip you up but the small ones.
Seamus Mulconry is director of Public Affairs in Edelman Dublin
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